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CIVITTA Serbia developed methodology for short- and long-term GDP forecasts2017-05-15
Public Policy Secretariat (PPS) of Republic of Serbia has the intention to conduct short-term and long-term predictions of Serbian GDP growth. PPS has hired Civitta to prepare Methodology for both kinds of GDP growth predictions.
Civitta’s experts prepared methodologies for calculation of relevant growth Indicator. The calculation of Indicator is based on data gathered from the questionnaires filled by the selected companies monthly for the purpose of current predictions and semiannual for the purpose of long-term predictions.
As for short-term predictions, the Methodology/Approach proposed by Civitta’s experts defers from the existing one (calculation of Business Climate Indicator –BCI or Purchasing Manager’s Index –PMI) in that Civitta’s questionnaire contains quantifications, so that predictions based on Civitta’s Indicator of economic growth, could be more precise and reliable. The same holds for the Civitta’s questionnaire and methodology relevant for the long-term predictions (based on actual data regarding investments planned/conducted by the companies from the sample).